Planning under relative certainty | Planning under deep uncertainty | |
Emphasis on | Deliberateness over emergentness | Reverse |
Nature of strategy | Intentionally designed | Gradually shaped |
Nature of strategy formation | Figuring out | Finding out |
Formation process | Formally structured and comprehensive | Unstructured and fragmented |
Formation process steps | First think then act | Thinking and acting intertwined |
Focus on strategy as a | Pattern of decisions (plan) | Patterns of action (behavior) |
Decisionmaking | Hierarchical | Political |
View of future | Forecast and anticipate | Partially unknown and unpredictable |
Posture towards the future | Make commitments, prepare for the future | Postpone commitments, remain flexible |
Implementation focused on | Programming (organizational efficiency) | Learning (organizational development) |
Strategic change | Implemented top-down | Requires broad cultural and cognitive shifts |
Monday, February 28, 2011
Some differences between planning under certainty and uncertainty
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
Hi Stephan,
ReplyDeleteWe met when you spoke at National Defense University recently. I like this table -- it's similar to the analytical framework we used to shape the 2008 report, Forging a New Shield. We distinguished between three types of uncertainty environments -- 19th Century (simple), 20th Century (complicated), and 21st Century (complex/chaotic). For the strategy variable, a 19th Century view might be Business Strategy, a 20th Century view might be Corporate Strategy, and a 21st Century view might be Network Strategy. Or another way to treat the strategy variable would be (1) strategic planning, (2) strategy formation-strategy management-strategy implementation, and (3) strategy-as-practice. A great book by de Wit and Meyer on strategy splits it up as (1) content, (2) context, and (3) process. And de Wit and Meyer split up strategy process as (1) strategic change, (2) strategic decision-making, and (3) strategic thinking. But my favorite tripartite model of different lenses on strategy is probably (1) macrostrategy, (2) mesostrategy, and (3) microstrategy; the concept of the "strategic corporal" is a recognition that small wins or microstrategic actions drive strategy much more than an overly rational Napoleonic macrostrategy forced down on the organization. Keep blogging!